Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
